Luciana Spica Almilia, Nanang Shonhadji, Angraeni
(BULETIN EKONOMI Vol. 6 No. 2 Agustus 2008)
This study is aimed to test the consistency of time period model, whether the information that previously affects today’s performance can be used to predict the performance in the future, and how the consistency of Indonesia banking financial prediction model formulation equation in order to detect bank condition and performance in the period of pre-economic crisis (1995-1996), during economic crisis (1997-1999) or post-economic crisis (2000-2005) is since bank condition and health is the interest of all relevant parties namely bank owner and manager, customers, Bank Indonesia in its capacity as the supervisor and builder, and the government.
The samples are Local Government Banks listed in Indonesian Banking Directory during the period after economic crisis in 1995 – 2005 and have total assets of less than or as much as 10 quintillion (≤10 quintillion), and Indonesian Financial Economic Statistics Monthly Statement for economic macro indicator. The sampling is performed by means of purposive method (purposive sampling). Dependent Variable in this study is Financial Sustainability Ratio and independent variable in this study is Capital Adequacy Ratio, Non Performing Loan, Return On Assets, Operational Cost Ratio to Operational Income, Loan to Deposit Ratio, Money Supply Sensitivity, General Customer Price Index Sensitivity and SBI Interest Rate Sensitivity. The result of this study shows that model financial sustainability ratio did not have structural stabilization in 1999 – 2005.
Keywords: financial prediction, financial sustainability ratio, macroeconomic variable, financial performance
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